Stock Market Topics December 8, 2024 2

How to Identify Winning Stocks Early?

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In the ever-evolving landscape of business growth, there lies an undeniable truth: all growth is predetermined and can be traced through various patternsThe advance of technology and evolving market demands have created spaces where companies can expand their influence and profitability, leading to significant opportunities for investors and entrepreneurs alikeUnderstanding the underlying factors that drive growth is crucial for anyone looking to navigate this complex terrain.

It is worth noting that much of the public information we encounter is already reflected in stock pricesThe hidden profits, however, often represent the discrepancies in expectations and reality, where those who can accurately identify these hidden values can gain a competitive edge.

To shed light on this topic, I have taken the liberty of categorizing various situations that may arise, allowing for better understanding and strategic planning.

1. Research and Development (R&D) Expenditure

Take, for instance, companies with substantial long-term R&D expenses

These organizations may appear less profitable, as their profits are often consumed by investments into innovationYet, these expenditures are merely a transformation of current profits into intellectual property, stored and waiting to manifest in future financial reports.

Huawei stands as a prime example of thisOver the last decade, Huawei has invested approximately one trillion yuan in R&DTo the untrained eye, its reported profits may seem modest, spanning several hundreds of billions, at times even decreasing to tens of billions.

However, the fruits of these investments are beginning to bloom in areas like smartphones, automobiles, and semiconductors, where Huawei has emerged as a fierce competitor able to take on numerous established players simultaneously.

Another notable mention is BYD, which adopted a 'technology fishpond' strategy well before the surge in demand for electric vehicles

Although the market did not immediately utilize their developments, the extensive groundwork laid during the R&D phase positions them favorably for future production scales and profit margins.

Once mass production kicks in, the research costs will rapidly dilute, propelling profit margins upward—evidenced by the rapid profit escalation from when I invested in BYD, with initial profits around ten billion increasing exponentially to hundreds of billions today.

Therefore, companies that invest heavily in R&D deserve a compassionate valuation, with the crucial factor being an accurate assessment of future potential.

2. Competitive Dynamics

In certain sectors, where entry barriers are moderate yet competition remains fierce, we often witness industry giants exerting pressure on pricing

This can lead to a general state of negative profit margins, with many players struggling even to break even during periods of market turmoil.

Such scenarios, while unsustainable over the long run, often hide significant profits within the cycleWhen the competitive landscape stabilizes and companies solidify their standings, not only will their market shares increase, but their gross margins will also rebound.

For instance, looking back at the air conditioning industry, the initial phase was marked by intense competition and minimal profitsAs the market matured, however, companies like Gree started to flourishThe current solar energy sector is following a similar trajectory.

3. Capacity Constraints

In some businesses, despite high demand, limitations in production capacity can compress profits

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The length of time required to expand operations can contribute significantly to sustained expenditures without immediate returns.

In such situations, profits are locked within the capacities themselvesOnce these constraints are alleviated, there is potential for rapid profit expansion—illustrated by the offshore cable market which, after a prolonged period of capacity shortage, surged into a bullish market.

4. Asset or Inventory Utilization

For most companies, asset efficiency may decline over time, yet some enterprises indeed possess assets or inventories that appreciate

In such instances, their profits are extended through time.

The key advantage here lies in achieving compounding growth as they efficiently utilize their assetsTake McDonald's, for instance; many assume its profitability stems solely from hamburger salesIn reality, its primary revenue source comes from real estate acquisitions near their outlets, benefiting from market price increases.

Consider also Kweichow Moutai—its baijiu (Chinese liquor) increases in value with time, and Moutai has stored over 20,000 tons of base liquor that inherently appreciates.

Similarly, Jianyou Co., a manufacturer of heparin, benefits from the fluctuations in pig intestine prices

Buying in bulk when prices are lower allows them to capitalize once market prices rise, a tactic often seen in mining companies as well.

5. Non-linear Depreciation

A large number of businesses apply a linear method to asset depreciation; however, some utilize non-linear depreciation methodsThis can lead to an initial high depreciation rate that tapers off eventually.

As a consequence, the depreciation costs diminish over time while investors often predict future costs based on linear past dataThis underestimation can lock profits within past depreciation levels.

For example, hydroelectric power stations are typically designed for a 50-year lifespan but can frequently extend well beyond that, resulting in profits materializing post-depreciation when the asset is still functional.

6. Financial Structures

Many industries experience significant initial investment costs, but once established, they transform into profitable enterprises with relatively low maintenance costs.

However, these investments are often heavily financed through loans, leading to substantial financial charges that contribute to operational costs.

Over time, as loan repayments increase and debt levels decrease, the savings accrued from reduced interest payments translate directly into profit increments

In these scenarios, profits can be seen as pre-determined within the financial framework.

China National Nuclear Power faces massive investment requirements while generating substantial financial costs, exemplifying how high initial costs manifest later as profit gains.

7. Channel-Driven Growth

In consumer goods sectors, the channel can be critical to successGiven that many products feature only slight differences, visibility and access often determine sales performance.

Thus, consumer-focused enterprises may prioritize expanding their offline distribution channels to enhance accessibility

This raises the question of costs associated with channel acquisition, which are relatively fixed, while the variety of products remains fluid.

In this context, expanding product lines alongside channel growth can yield substantial savings while the market continues to evaluate companies based on prior gross profit margins, thus hiding additional profits within channel expansions.

For example, in the beer industry, Tsingtao Brewery's substantial offline channel network allows it to swiftly pivot towards craft beer when this trend resumes popularity.

8. Cost-Reduction Strategies

Certain companies embark on initiatives aimed at cost reduction; however, these measures may temporarily inflate costs or yield delayed results.

Long-term, however, systematic management and operational advancements can lead to enhanced efficiency and lower costs.

9. Goodwill Impairment

Within corporate assets, goodwill constitutes a portion that can fluctuate

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