The recent surge in U.S.job growth has shattered the dreams of Wall Street for rate cuts in the first half of the year,resulting in a significant jolt to both the stock and bond markets.In 2025,it seems that fortune is not favoring - especially with the non-farm payroll data showing a concerning trend.For the second consecutive month,the jobs data came in surprisingly strong,forcing investors to reassess the Federal Reserve's ability to lower interest rates.As a result,the U.S.bond market has taken a hit,echoing through to the European bonds as well.

The renewed pricing of U.S.interest rate paths influenced the dollar index,which continued to strengthen,nearing the critical threshold of 110.Following a drop in the yen's exchange rate,the Japanese finance minister warned of possible measures,leading to the yen exhibiting slight strength when compared to other currencies.The British pound,however,led the declines.Meanwhile,energy and commodity prices have continued to rise,with gold and silver also performing well.The U.K.bond market experienced significant fluctuations,with government borrowing costs reaching the highest level since 2008.

The non-farm payrolls report for December revealed an addition of 256,000 jobs,far exceeding the median forecast of 156,000 by analysts.Interestingly,this figure closely aligns with our prediction of 250,000 jobs.In a survey of 70 economists,only 2 suggested a number above 250,000,highlighting the unexpected nature of this data and its impact on the markets.The yield on the 30-year U.S.Treasury bond briefly crossed the 5% mark,and the yield curve saw an upward shift across the board.Economists at Bank of America,who previously predicted two rate cuts this year,have since adjusted their forecasts to expect a rate hike as the next policy action.

The trajectory of the U.S.economy hinges directly on consumer trends,which are in turn dictated by the health of the job market.The most recent employment data exhibit a remarkable resilience within the labor market,suggesting that fears of a recession might once again be exaggerated.However,it’s unclear whether the non-farm payrolls will be revised downward next month or if they are influenced by one-off factors.Data from household employment surveys do not paint as vibrant a picture as that from business surveys,but overall,the findings indicate a stronger and longer economic cycle.

This set of data has largely extinguished hopes in the market for interest rate cuts in the first half of the year.The futures markets are currently pricing in a first rate cut not coming until September,with expectations for a total of 1.2 cuts for the year,as opposed to predictions made before the current data suggested a first cut in June with a total of two cuts for the year.The FOMC is not only unlikely to reduce rates at the end of this month,but a more extended hiatus on cuts seems to be emerging as a consensus among decision-makers.Minutes from the December meeting showed significant internal debate over whether to continue rate cuts,but the latest employment data has provided clarification.

Regarding possible rate cuts in the second half of the year,I hold a less definitive view than the market.While the employment data indicate that the Federal Reserve may have underestimated economic and inflation pressures,it necessitates a “recalibration.” The interest rate path will depend on future economic data,particularly inflation and employment trends.At this juncture,the uncertainty surrounding inflation and employment perspectives is pronounced.However,the economy does not require immediate intervention,thus justifying a pause in rate cuts.

Yet,lack of clarity regarding economic prospects does not imply that employment will definitely remain strong in the latter half of the year.I believe the unpredictability in policy trajectories has increased,but that does not signify the cessation of the rate cut cycle.The Federal Reserve will need to reevaluate its approach based on the situation at the time,requiring new judgment calls and adjustments.Following this reasoning,I maintain a forecast of two rate cuts in the second half of the year,each by 25 basis points,although my confidence in this prediction has lessened,emphasizing a data-dependent approach.

On the trade front,there are peculiarities emerging in the U.S.economy,which may signal that inflation risks currently overshadow trade-related risks.The interplay of the labor market,tax cuts,and the pressures stemming from immigration has created an unpredictable and uncontrollable inflationary environment.This dynamic has the potential to disrupt established Fed policies while simultaneously opening pathways for the dollar's strength.Consumer confidence surveys reveal that American households' concerns regarding long-term inflation have reached their highest levels since 2008.

In a shocking political development,Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his impending resignation from both the leadership of the ruling party and the premiership,casting a shadow over Canada's political landscape.Following in the footsteps of France,Germany,and Japan,Canada now faces a scenario where a minority government grapples with parliamentary stalemate—a situation that adds further uncertainty to the Canadian dollar.

Since late September last year,the Canadian dollar has depreciated by 6.7% against the U.S.dollar.It is uncommon for a commodity currency to weaken without significant fluctuations in oil prices.Clearly,the strength of the dollar plays a role,but the greater concern lies in the Canadian central bank’s aggressive rate cutting approach last year.The bank reduced rates by 175 basis points,making it one of the most significant approaches among developed countries.The yield differential between Canadian and U.S.10-year bonds has widened significantly; three months ago it was just 78 basis points,but now it has increased to 140 basis points,resulting in capital fleeing to U.S.assets for higher returns.

The Canadian economy has performed poorly in recent years,expanding at a rate less than half that of the U.S.Declining oil prices have unveiled previously masked domestic burdens,such as family debt,stagnant consumption,rising unemployment,and lack of productivity growth.The Trudeau government has struggled to address these domestic economic challenges,resulting in dwindling public support for the ruling party.Weak economic conditions have necessitated further rate cuts from the Bank of Canada,which has already lowered rates five times last year and is anticipated to continue this trend in the future.The Canadian dollar has become a carry-trade currency,with plunging savings rates pushing out arbitrage funds.

Further complicating matters,the economic structure and geographical proximity of Canada to the United States make it heavily reliant on international trade,historically enjoying a substantial trade surplus.Whether this precarious balance will hold remains uncertain.Still,the risks implied are sufficient to keep the Canadian dollar under pressure.

The awkward position facing Canada is also reflective of issues experienced by other G7 nations.They are contending with weak economic growth,fiscal deficits,high unemployment rates,soaring living costs,and constrained governance.Much like Canada,they depend heavily on exports in the face of insufficient internal demand while experiencing societal fractures driven by immigration.In truth,outside of major continental economies like the United States and China with significant internal markets,most countries contend with the severe anxiety of potentially collapsing trade orders.

This article reflects personal opinions and does not represent the official position or forecast of the author's organization,nor serve as investment advice or solicitation.